Day 18: 'In a canter'
An introductory weekday newsletter from Schwartz Media. Counting the days since Australia had an energy policy.
Good morning and welcome to day 18.
Today in summary: Prime Minister Scott Morrison put himself at odds with almost every expert in town when he said Australia would meet its Paris climate commitments “in a canter” under a business-as-usual scenario; the Northern Territory’s gas strategy won support of the oil and gas sector at the same time as South Australia drew closer to legislating a decade-long ban on fracking in the Limestone Coast region; Victoria gifted Origin Energy A$4.5 million to help distribute power from up to 650 of its customers into a microgrid; and a new report from the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate found the transition to a low-carbon economy could unlock US$26 trillion in benefits by 2030, including 65 million new jobs.
— Charis
Today’s policy spin level: 💨💨💨💨
Prime Minister Scott Morrison continues to hit the airwaves with his magic pudding claim that the government can reduce electricity prices and meet is global carbon reduction commitments without having a fully formed energy policy. Morrison’s suggestion that “the business-as-usual model gets there in a canter” puts him at odds with the government’s own Energy Security Board, but also with new analysis from independent policy advisory group ClimateWorks. It found even if the NEG had been enacted, emissions reductions would stagnate at just 11% below 2005 levels by 2030. This is because electricity emissions make up one third of Australia’s total greenhouse emissions and while they have been reducing, emissions are still above 2005 levels in the industry, buildings and transport sectors.
Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner has re-established the NT Gas Taskforce and committed to expand LNG manufacturing and export by the Territory. The Taskforce is likely to be headed by former Department of Chief Minister head Paul Tyrell. The NT government lifted a moratorium on fracking in April after agreeing to implement 135 recommendations in a scientific inquiry it commissioned on the environmental risks. Meanwhile, South Australia’s Liberal government is proceeding with an election promise to ban fracking in the Limestone Coast region. The bill was introduced by independent southeast MP Troy Bell (a former Liberal) and has passed the state parliament’s lower house.
The Victorian government is in election mode and the coffers are flowing. Origin Energy will benefit to the tune of A$4.5 million. The money will go towards a A$20 million microgrid project designed to connect power from up to 650 household and commercial customers with solar PV and batteries. The customers will receive discounted batteries and if all goes to plan, reduced power bills.
The Nicholas Stern-led Global Commission on the Economy and Climate released its annual New Climate Economy report arguing the benefits of climate action are greater than ever before. There’s lots of stock photos of wetlands and container terminals. And plenty of motherhood statements like “we’re on the cusp of a new economic era”. There’s also the bold claim that “bold action could yield a direct economic gain of US$26 trillion through to 2030 compared with business-as-usual”, but equally interesting is the group’s acknowledgement that current economic models are deeply inadequate in capturing the opportunities of the carbon transition.
“We need a new class of economic models that can capture the powerful dynamics at play, including transformative technological advances, preservation of essential natural capital, and the full health benefits of cleaner air and a safer climate, including the containment of pandemic diseases.”
Geopolitics
Australia has signed a declaration saying climate change is the single greatest security threat to the Pacific following Pacific Island Forum talks this week. Australia will also contribute to a $1.5 billion “Pacific Resilience Facility” to help island nations deal with rising sea levels. But one diplomat was having none of it, telling The Guardian that Australia’s ongoing provision of aid to the region was undermined by its work against halting climate change.
“Sometimes the way I think about it ... it’s like you’re in a relationship and you get abused by your spouse but at the same time they feed you and clothe you and things like that,” he said. “You could say it’s a bit of a dysfunctional relationship.”
Coming up
The Grattan Institute is holding a seminar on energy policy featuring Professors Chloe Munro, Ross Garnaut, Michael Brear.
The Commentariat
Americans should thank the fracking industry for their clean air, since it’s the reason power generation companies can retire older coal plants and replace them with natural gas capacity, writes Forbes contributor David Blackman. As a result “Overall, U.S. carbon emissions for 2017 are 14 percent lower than they were in 2005 , a time frame during which the domestic economy grew by 20 percent”.
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