Day 255: 'Climate denialism and coal hugging'
An introductory weekday newsletter from Schwartz Media. Counting the days since Australia had an energy policy.
Good morning and welcome to day 255.
Today in summary: Labor won’t release costings for its climate policy, as it says the cost depends on how businesses respond; research shows electric cars could cost as much as a BMW by 2020; and independent candidates demand climate change action in exchange for post-election support.
— Sophie
Today’s policy spin level: 💨💨🌪️🌪️
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Labor will not release a cost estimate for its climate change policy before the election, after shadow climate change minister Mark Butler yesterday described the policy as “impossible to cost” as businesses will determine whether they cut their emissions or buy offsets to meet the government limit.
The AFR reports Prime Minister Scott Morrison has claimed the cost will be “anywhere between, on current prices, $27.5 billion to up to $35 billion”; however, it also quotes an anonymous senior industry economist as saying:
“anyone trying to put a figure on the cost now "is pulling it out of their arse'' because there was not enough detail.”
Research from Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows the total cost of some electric cars will match fossil fuel cars by 2020, the SMH reports. The Nissan Leaf will achieve crossover with the BMW-3 series by next year, based on assumptions such as fuel costing A$1.30 per litre, rising 0.8% annually after inflation, and an electricity price of 25 Australian cents per kilowatt-hour. Bloomberg estimates that without any government policy to encourage their purchase, EV sales in Australia will rise to 40,000 in 2023, up from 2,176 in 2018, the SMH reports.
Meanwhile, the AFR reports Bloomberg NEF described Australia as “lagging” and about 28% of Australian new car sales in 2030 would be electric vehicles if there was no government support, compared to Labor’s goal of 50%, a target Bloomberg NEF labelled “ambitious”, the AFR said.
The Age and The Guardian report that seven independents - Julia Banks, Helen Haines, Rob Oakeshott, Kerryn Phelps, Zali Steggall, Andrew Wilkie and Oliver Yates - will today issue a joint statement on their policy demands in exchange for support following the election, where they demand action on climate change.
In that story, the Guardian also reports Greens leader Richard Di Natale will speak at the National Press Club today, where he will urge Labor to work with the Greens on climate change like Julia Gillard did. The Australian reports Di Natale will say:
“The only hope for bipartisanship is that the Liberals get a hiding, especially in key seats like Kooyong and Higgins, and voters send a clear message that climate denialism and coal hugging is no longer a viable political strategy… don’t follow the take-it-or-leave-it approach of Kevin Rudd in 2009, but let us work together.”
The Commentariat
In the AFR, Rosalind Dixon and Richard Holden compare the two major parties’ carbon credit policies.
“Labor and the Coalition’s climate plans involve the use of carbon credits of one form or another. The Coalition’s involves perfectly legal but extremely sharp-elbowed accounting tricks. Labor’s uses sound economic logic and puts more faith in markets, but involves a good deal of uncertainty – as opposed, say, to a fixed carbon price.
And under neither plan are things nearly as simple as announcing an emissions target and letting nature take its course. It will take actual policies to achieve meaningful action on climate change.”
Three more things
The Northern Territory government will not pass on power bill savings to consumers following the Australian Energy Regulator’s network pricing decision for 2019-2024 yesterday, the ABC reports. The AER cut the amount recoverable by NT’s Power and Water by 18.5% from the previous period, which it estimated would reduce residential customer bills by 4.1% by 2024. However, the ABC reports that NT Treasurer Nicole Manison:
“said that would not be happening because the jurisdiction already "had the lowest power prices in the nation".”
The future of KEPCO’s planned coal mine in NSW’s Bylong Valley has become uncertain due to political changes in South Korea, the Newcastle Herald reports. It says the progressive South Korean government has, in the past few weeks:
“made the strongest signals yet about ramping up the reforms by adding new taxes on imported thermal coal and releasing a draft energy policy that significantly increases the shift to renewables. While KEPCO has argued the government moves do not impact the Bylong mine, it is hard to be optimistic about any new coal venture with a 25-year time frame.”
The Victorian default offer has come under criticism from the energy market lobby, the Age reports. It has commissioned a report by Craig Emerson which says the VDO will have: “adverse consequences” for competition and price-sensitive customers” and “will drive some retailers out of the market and prevent others from entering it in the future”.
The VDO is set to kick in from July 1st - the state’s Essential Services Commission gave its draft advice on how the rule should work in March, and is set to give its final recommendation by May 3rd. Meanwhile, the ESC has today released its approach paper for its review of distribution businesses in the state.